NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
From the seventh to the ninth of November 2007, Umno will be holding its Annual General Assembly. The last party election was in 2004 so it is actually time for another one. However, it appears like they are, again, postponing the party election so that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi can remain the unchallenged Umno President until at least 2009 -- that is after the next general election. This postponement will allow Abdullah to purge the party by dropping the remnants of the Mahathir regime from the general election candidacy list and all his people can then be put in place before the party election is held. This will also mean it will be very difficult for anyone to mount a challenge to unseat him in the 2009 party election.
There is much speculation that Abdullah might close the convention with an announcement that he will be having an audience with the Agong the following Monday to request the dissolution of Parliament to enable the Twelfth General Election to be held on 25 November 2007. Or maybe he will meet the Agong beforehand to inform His Majesty that he will be making the announcement on Friday, 9 November 2007, of the dissolution of Parliament.
25 November 2007 is one of the four dates the feng shui master gave Abdullah for the Twelfth General Election to be held. The other three are 19 May 2007, which has since passed, 15 December 2007, and 15 March 2008. This is the same feng shui master who gave Abdullah the 21 March 2004 date to hold the Eleventh General Election that saw Barisan Nasional sweep 91% of the seats in Parliament, the most impressive performance ever.
Political observers, however, feel that 25 November is too early to hold the general election as MCA and Gerakan are not ready yet. According to the word on the ground, there will be a massive swing of Chinese support to DAP, which may end up getting 20 to 25 Parliament seats. There is the added danger that Penang might fall to the opposition -- or at least the Chinese seats might fall even if Umno still retains its seats in Penang. This would mean that even if Barisan Nasional can still retain a simple majority in Penang it will be an Umno government minus a two-thirds majority and with a very strong opposition presence in the State Assembly.
Umno appears to still have 70% Malay support nationwide (and 50% in Kelantan and Terengganu) but Chinese support has shrunk to only 40%. This augurs well for DAP -- and probably for PKR as well in ‘Chinese’ constituencies where they field Chinese candidates. PKR has the potential to secure five to eight Parliament seats with PAS bringing in another 25 to 30 in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu -- giving the opposition a combined 50 to 60 seats in Parliament.
Of course, this still allows Barisan Nasional a 72%-77% majority in Parliament from the present 91% -- more than the two-thirds majority it needs -- but 50 to 60 opposition voices in Parliament will certainly make life very uncomfortable for the ruling coalition.
Barisan Nasional is not sitting pretty though. It has injected hundreds of thousands of ‘new’ voters into Kelantan and Terengganu to ensure its Gelombang Biru (Blue Wave) will achieve the Pembangkang Sifar (Zero Opposition) campaign it has launched. The Terengganu Gelombang Biru campaign proved successful in 2004 when PAS was reduced to just four State seats with 28 State and eight Parliament seats falling to Barisan Nasional. The 2004 election success in Terengganu merits the same campaign being implemented nationwide.
Sabah, a PKR target, has seen an influx of 1.5 million foreign voters while Kelantan and Terengganu have about one million or so combined. This almost assures Barisan Nasional a clean sweep of Sabah, Kelantan and Terengganu. In the other states where ‘foreign participation’ is a bit more difficult, opposition supporters have been relocated to other constituencies while government supporters have been moved in. Then there are the postal votes, which invariably are always in favour of the ruling party, plus the dead voters and those above 100 years old still on the electoral roll -- and the previous elections have proven that they always come back from the grave to cast their votes.
DAP has discovered that many of its supporters have been removed from the electoral roll while ‘new faces’ have been added to the list. Since some constituencies saw margins of only 1,000 to 2,000 votes, 2,000 voters moved out and a new lot of 2,000 moved in would mean that Barisan Nasional can win with a most comfortable margin. Expect many of the DAP kingpins to be sent into retirement. Lim Kit Siang alone has lost 8,000 votes over the last few months. Bye-bye Kit Siang and Guan Eng. Maybe you can now become a fulltime blogger like me.
Yes, the outcome of the Twelfth General Election has already been decided even before Parliament is dissolved. Barisan Nasional is serious about its Gelombang Biru and Pembangkang Sifar program. In 2004 it was 91% as follows:
UMNO: 35.9% of the popular votes and 110 seats or 50% of the seats.
MCA: 15.5% of the popular votes and 31 seats or 14% of the seats.
MIC: 3.2% of the popular votes and 9 seats or 4% of the seats.
Gerakan: 3.7% of the popular votes and 10 seats or 4% of the seats.
Others: 5.5% of the popular votes and 39 seats or 18% of the seats
Total BN: 63.8% of the popular votes and 199 seats or 91% of the seats.
Opposition: 36.2% of the popular votes and 20 seats or 9% the seats.
This time around Barisan Nasional wants 100% of the 219 seats which they hope to win with about 70% of the popular votes.
Anyway, that is what Barisan Nasional wants, but the people are not sitting pretty either. In anticipation of the dissolution of Parliament soon after the Umno General Assembly on 9 November and the general election being held on 25 November, BERSIH, the coalition for free and fair elections, is holding a rally at 3.00pm on Saturday, 10 November 2007, at the Dataran Merdeka in front of the Selangor Club. The target is to gather 100,000 concerned citizens who will then march to the Istana Negara to present a Memorandum to the Agong calling for massive electoral reforms. It is going to be a sea of yellow or Gelombang Kuning (Yellow Wave) as many will be dressed in yellow. This will be the peoples’ response to Barisan Nasional’s Gelombang Biru.
Electoral reforms are long overdue. Not only are voters being transferred out and foreigners being registered as voters, but many who never registered as voters in their entire life have found, much to their surprise, that they are now registered voters. Who do you think will be voting in their place? In the last election many who voted in the same constituency for the last 20 or 30 years found that they had been transferred to another state. They then rushed to their ‘new’ polling station and found that they had already voted. In short, someone had voted in their place.
Gerrymandering, ‘phantom’ voters, ‘imported’ voters, transferred voters, postal voters, etc., can of course work to a certain extent. But when the swing is massive even this can’t help. This would be when Barisan Nasional plays the race card and threatens the voters, in particular the Chinese voters, with another ‘May 13’ if the ruling coalition loses its two-thirds majority in Parliament or ‘Chinese’ states like Penang fall to the opposition. Well, if they try that ‘Remember May 13’ trick again, the opposition will come forward to address it.
To demonstrate what I mean, read this old article I wrote in 20 August 2000 called ‘Politics of Fear’. This is what I said then:
Two days ago, Umno Youth confronted the Chinese about the demands the Chinese had made, a long time ago, during the Tenth General Election. Why, after almost a year, does Umno Youth dig this issue up? Why did they not confront the Chinese then, at the time the demands were made, back in 1999? Is it because they needed the Chinese votes then but no longer need it now?
Maybe it did take Umno Youth almost a year to realise what the Chinese demands were, or to pluck up the courage to stage an illegal demonstration in front of the Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall. I was told it was a boisterous demonstration complete with four-letter words -- and I am not talking about the Umno word (which is also a four-letter word) but of the ‘F’ type. Some people were roughed up and one journalist-photographer was assaulted.
But that’s not the issue. The Chinese tried to pacify the Umno Youth demonstrators and explain what the demands were all about, but Umno Youth would hear nothing of it. Taking a very confrontational stand, Umno Youth told the Chinese they refuse to listen to any explanation and insisted that the Chinese apologise. Again, the Chinese tried to explain the issue but Umno Youth shouted them down and would not allow them to. Umno Youth only wanted an apology and nothing less.
Umno Youth was very abusive and vulgar in their treatment of the Chinese. Clearly their intention was to spark an incident but the Chinese knew better than to engage Umno Youth in a boxing match. The Chinese knew, either way, they would come out the loser.
Umno Youth has given the Chinese a week to apologise and warned the Chinese that they run the risk of angering the Malays if they do not. This, in turn, raises a greater risk of racial tension, possibly followed by a racial conflict. In short, if you don’t play ball, there may be another May 13 looming over the horizon.
Yesterday, the Chinese announced that they will not apologise, as there is nothing to apologise for. Furthermore, the issue is ‘dead’ and had already been previously clarified to everyone’s satisfaction.
Both sides will not back down so it is now a stalemate.
This was a major booboo for Umno Youth. They have thrown the challenge and the Chinese have stood firm. What will Umno Youth do next? If Umno Youth keeps quiet it will lose face so will it now start a racial conflict as promised?
Anyway, what Umno Youth is going to do is not important as it is no longer significant in Malaysian politics. Maybe when Anwar Ibrahim was the Umno Youth leader people took notice. Since then Umno Youth is seen as merely Mahathir’s tool to provoke issues whenever Umno proper cannot be seen to be behind it.
What is more interesting in this whole issue is that Barisan Alternatif (BA) is going to make history and change the way the many races in this land live with each other. Yesterday, PAS, DAP, PRM and keADILan had a ‘roundtable conference’ in Kuala Lumpur. The conference had nothing to do with the Umno Youth threat. It was to plan the opposition’s strategies for the future. I must admit it was a fantastic conference and if they implement all the plans adopted it is going to make the opposition coalition a very credible alternative to the ruling government. But that is a story for another time.
At this conference, the youth members from the four Barisan Alternatif parties pledged to stand united in the face of Umno Youth’s threat. And they will be issuing a media statement to that effect in a day or two.
Pemuda BA (and three out of the four BA Youth leaders are Malays mind you) is going to tell Umno Youth that the Malays will stand united in defence of the Chinese. If Umno Youth tries to harm the Chinese they will first have to cross the line of Malays. The Malays in BA will stand between Umno Youth and the Chinese.
“Let the Umno Youth Malays kill the BA Youth Malays first before they can touch the Chinese,” said one Malay from keADILan.
“The Malays will stand between Umno Youth and the Chinese,” said another Malay from PAS.
“It is time we stop talking about Malays and Chinese and start talking as Malaysians,” said the DAP chap.
“PRM will take the initiative of drafting the press release to tell Umno Youth that Pemuda BA is guaranteeing the safety of the Chinese,” said the PRM Youth leader.
I felt a tear in my eyes. Umno Youth may not realise it but they have just made history. Their threat to start another race riot if the Chinese do not apologise has brought the Malays forward. The Malays are now standing in defence of their Chinese comrades. The Malays are prepared to face their fellow Malays in protecting innocent Chinese lives.
What really moved the crowd was when Dr Hatta Ramli of PAS got onto the stage and announced to the assembly of Malays, Chinese and Indians that Umno Youth would have to “step over our dead bodies first before they can harm the Chinese” (“langkah mayat kami dulu”).
The hall reverberated with applause. I felt like crying. My wife is, after all, Chinese, though of Siamese descent. 43 years of independence and, finally, Malaysians have learnt to set aside racial differences and stand up for one another. Yesterday we stopped being Malays and Chinese and emerged as Malaysians. What a great Merdeka Day celebration this 31 August is going to be.
Umno Youth had better be warned. Nearly half the voters voted for the opposition the last general election. It is also said that more than 70% of these people are Malays, as the Chinese had been intimidated into voting for the ruling government.
Maybe Umno Youth is trying to win back Malay support by showing how aggressive they are and that they will take no shit from the Chinese. But this move has backfired badly, just as Dr Mahathir’s move to put Anwar in jail for 15 years has.
Umno Youth has not won back the Malays. They have only forced the Malays to come out in defence of the Chinese. And, to make matters worse, Umno Youth is probably going to now lose the support of the Chinese, which they had in the first place.
The Chinese were scared the last election. They were scared because they thought they were on their own. Now that they know the opposition Malays in BA will not let any harm come to them there is no longer any reason to be scared of Umno.
Umno Youth had better be warned. The Malays in BA are not just paying lip service. They mean what they say. The Malays in BA are determined that race riots are a thing of the past. The Malays in BA will take the punches first before a single Chinese hair can be harmed. The Malays in BA are not ‘talk only’ like Umno Youth but are ‘battle seasoned’ through years of Reformasi. And there are more BA Malays than there are Umno Youth members.
If at all any good has come out of the Reformasi movement it is that Reformasi has successfully set aside race and elevated justice as the rallying call. Umno is all about ‘Malay rights and privileges’. Reformasi is about justice for Anwar and justice for all Malaysians.
Raja Petra Kamarudin
From the seventh to the ninth of November 2007, Umno will be holding its Annual General Assembly. The last party election was in 2004 so it is actually time for another one. However, it appears like they are, again, postponing the party election so that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi can remain the unchallenged Umno President until at least 2009 -- that is after the next general election. This postponement will allow Abdullah to purge the party by dropping the remnants of the Mahathir regime from the general election candidacy list and all his people can then be put in place before the party election is held. This will also mean it will be very difficult for anyone to mount a challenge to unseat him in the 2009 party election.
There is much speculation that Abdullah might close the convention with an announcement that he will be having an audience with the Agong the following Monday to request the dissolution of Parliament to enable the Twelfth General Election to be held on 25 November 2007. Or maybe he will meet the Agong beforehand to inform His Majesty that he will be making the announcement on Friday, 9 November 2007, of the dissolution of Parliament.
25 November 2007 is one of the four dates the feng shui master gave Abdullah for the Twelfth General Election to be held. The other three are 19 May 2007, which has since passed, 15 December 2007, and 15 March 2008. This is the same feng shui master who gave Abdullah the 21 March 2004 date to hold the Eleventh General Election that saw Barisan Nasional sweep 91% of the seats in Parliament, the most impressive performance ever.
Political observers, however, feel that 25 November is too early to hold the general election as MCA and Gerakan are not ready yet. According to the word on the ground, there will be a massive swing of Chinese support to DAP, which may end up getting 20 to 25 Parliament seats. There is the added danger that Penang might fall to the opposition -- or at least the Chinese seats might fall even if Umno still retains its seats in Penang. This would mean that even if Barisan Nasional can still retain a simple majority in Penang it will be an Umno government minus a two-thirds majority and with a very strong opposition presence in the State Assembly.
Umno appears to still have 70% Malay support nationwide (and 50% in Kelantan and Terengganu) but Chinese support has shrunk to only 40%. This augurs well for DAP -- and probably for PKR as well in ‘Chinese’ constituencies where they field Chinese candidates. PKR has the potential to secure five to eight Parliament seats with PAS bringing in another 25 to 30 in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu -- giving the opposition a combined 50 to 60 seats in Parliament.
Of course, this still allows Barisan Nasional a 72%-77% majority in Parliament from the present 91% -- more than the two-thirds majority it needs -- but 50 to 60 opposition voices in Parliament will certainly make life very uncomfortable for the ruling coalition.
Barisan Nasional is not sitting pretty though. It has injected hundreds of thousands of ‘new’ voters into Kelantan and Terengganu to ensure its Gelombang Biru (Blue Wave) will achieve the Pembangkang Sifar (Zero Opposition) campaign it has launched. The Terengganu Gelombang Biru campaign proved successful in 2004 when PAS was reduced to just four State seats with 28 State and eight Parliament seats falling to Barisan Nasional. The 2004 election success in Terengganu merits the same campaign being implemented nationwide.
Sabah, a PKR target, has seen an influx of 1.5 million foreign voters while Kelantan and Terengganu have about one million or so combined. This almost assures Barisan Nasional a clean sweep of Sabah, Kelantan and Terengganu. In the other states where ‘foreign participation’ is a bit more difficult, opposition supporters have been relocated to other constituencies while government supporters have been moved in. Then there are the postal votes, which invariably are always in favour of the ruling party, plus the dead voters and those above 100 years old still on the electoral roll -- and the previous elections have proven that they always come back from the grave to cast their votes.
DAP has discovered that many of its supporters have been removed from the electoral roll while ‘new faces’ have been added to the list. Since some constituencies saw margins of only 1,000 to 2,000 votes, 2,000 voters moved out and a new lot of 2,000 moved in would mean that Barisan Nasional can win with a most comfortable margin. Expect many of the DAP kingpins to be sent into retirement. Lim Kit Siang alone has lost 8,000 votes over the last few months. Bye-bye Kit Siang and Guan Eng. Maybe you can now become a fulltime blogger like me.
Yes, the outcome of the Twelfth General Election has already been decided even before Parliament is dissolved. Barisan Nasional is serious about its Gelombang Biru and Pembangkang Sifar program. In 2004 it was 91% as follows:
UMNO: 35.9% of the popular votes and 110 seats or 50% of the seats.
MCA: 15.5% of the popular votes and 31 seats or 14% of the seats.
MIC: 3.2% of the popular votes and 9 seats or 4% of the seats.
Gerakan: 3.7% of the popular votes and 10 seats or 4% of the seats.
Others: 5.5% of the popular votes and 39 seats or 18% of the seats
Total BN: 63.8% of the popular votes and 199 seats or 91% of the seats.
Opposition: 36.2% of the popular votes and 20 seats or 9% the seats.
This time around Barisan Nasional wants 100% of the 219 seats which they hope to win with about 70% of the popular votes.
Anyway, that is what Barisan Nasional wants, but the people are not sitting pretty either. In anticipation of the dissolution of Parliament soon after the Umno General Assembly on 9 November and the general election being held on 25 November, BERSIH, the coalition for free and fair elections, is holding a rally at 3.00pm on Saturday, 10 November 2007, at the Dataran Merdeka in front of the Selangor Club. The target is to gather 100,000 concerned citizens who will then march to the Istana Negara to present a Memorandum to the Agong calling for massive electoral reforms. It is going to be a sea of yellow or Gelombang Kuning (Yellow Wave) as many will be dressed in yellow. This will be the peoples’ response to Barisan Nasional’s Gelombang Biru.
Electoral reforms are long overdue. Not only are voters being transferred out and foreigners being registered as voters, but many who never registered as voters in their entire life have found, much to their surprise, that they are now registered voters. Who do you think will be voting in their place? In the last election many who voted in the same constituency for the last 20 or 30 years found that they had been transferred to another state. They then rushed to their ‘new’ polling station and found that they had already voted. In short, someone had voted in their place.
Gerrymandering, ‘phantom’ voters, ‘imported’ voters, transferred voters, postal voters, etc., can of course work to a certain extent. But when the swing is massive even this can’t help. This would be when Barisan Nasional plays the race card and threatens the voters, in particular the Chinese voters, with another ‘May 13’ if the ruling coalition loses its two-thirds majority in Parliament or ‘Chinese’ states like Penang fall to the opposition. Well, if they try that ‘Remember May 13’ trick again, the opposition will come forward to address it.
To demonstrate what I mean, read this old article I wrote in 20 August 2000 called ‘Politics of Fear’. This is what I said then:
Two days ago, Umno Youth confronted the Chinese about the demands the Chinese had made, a long time ago, during the Tenth General Election. Why, after almost a year, does Umno Youth dig this issue up? Why did they not confront the Chinese then, at the time the demands were made, back in 1999? Is it because they needed the Chinese votes then but no longer need it now?
Maybe it did take Umno Youth almost a year to realise what the Chinese demands were, or to pluck up the courage to stage an illegal demonstration in front of the Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall. I was told it was a boisterous demonstration complete with four-letter words -- and I am not talking about the Umno word (which is also a four-letter word) but of the ‘F’ type. Some people were roughed up and one journalist-photographer was assaulted.
But that’s not the issue. The Chinese tried to pacify the Umno Youth demonstrators and explain what the demands were all about, but Umno Youth would hear nothing of it. Taking a very confrontational stand, Umno Youth told the Chinese they refuse to listen to any explanation and insisted that the Chinese apologise. Again, the Chinese tried to explain the issue but Umno Youth shouted them down and would not allow them to. Umno Youth only wanted an apology and nothing less.
Umno Youth was very abusive and vulgar in their treatment of the Chinese. Clearly their intention was to spark an incident but the Chinese knew better than to engage Umno Youth in a boxing match. The Chinese knew, either way, they would come out the loser.
Umno Youth has given the Chinese a week to apologise and warned the Chinese that they run the risk of angering the Malays if they do not. This, in turn, raises a greater risk of racial tension, possibly followed by a racial conflict. In short, if you don’t play ball, there may be another May 13 looming over the horizon.
Yesterday, the Chinese announced that they will not apologise, as there is nothing to apologise for. Furthermore, the issue is ‘dead’ and had already been previously clarified to everyone’s satisfaction.
Both sides will not back down so it is now a stalemate.
This was a major booboo for Umno Youth. They have thrown the challenge and the Chinese have stood firm. What will Umno Youth do next? If Umno Youth keeps quiet it will lose face so will it now start a racial conflict as promised?
Anyway, what Umno Youth is going to do is not important as it is no longer significant in Malaysian politics. Maybe when Anwar Ibrahim was the Umno Youth leader people took notice. Since then Umno Youth is seen as merely Mahathir’s tool to provoke issues whenever Umno proper cannot be seen to be behind it.
What is more interesting in this whole issue is that Barisan Alternatif (BA) is going to make history and change the way the many races in this land live with each other. Yesterday, PAS, DAP, PRM and keADILan had a ‘roundtable conference’ in Kuala Lumpur. The conference had nothing to do with the Umno Youth threat. It was to plan the opposition’s strategies for the future. I must admit it was a fantastic conference and if they implement all the plans adopted it is going to make the opposition coalition a very credible alternative to the ruling government. But that is a story for another time.
At this conference, the youth members from the four Barisan Alternatif parties pledged to stand united in the face of Umno Youth’s threat. And they will be issuing a media statement to that effect in a day or two.
Pemuda BA (and three out of the four BA Youth leaders are Malays mind you) is going to tell Umno Youth that the Malays will stand united in defence of the Chinese. If Umno Youth tries to harm the Chinese they will first have to cross the line of Malays. The Malays in BA will stand between Umno Youth and the Chinese.
“Let the Umno Youth Malays kill the BA Youth Malays first before they can touch the Chinese,” said one Malay from keADILan.
“The Malays will stand between Umno Youth and the Chinese,” said another Malay from PAS.
“It is time we stop talking about Malays and Chinese and start talking as Malaysians,” said the DAP chap.
“PRM will take the initiative of drafting the press release to tell Umno Youth that Pemuda BA is guaranteeing the safety of the Chinese,” said the PRM Youth leader.
I felt a tear in my eyes. Umno Youth may not realise it but they have just made history. Their threat to start another race riot if the Chinese do not apologise has brought the Malays forward. The Malays are now standing in defence of their Chinese comrades. The Malays are prepared to face their fellow Malays in protecting innocent Chinese lives.
What really moved the crowd was when Dr Hatta Ramli of PAS got onto the stage and announced to the assembly of Malays, Chinese and Indians that Umno Youth would have to “step over our dead bodies first before they can harm the Chinese” (“langkah mayat kami dulu”).
The hall reverberated with applause. I felt like crying. My wife is, after all, Chinese, though of Siamese descent. 43 years of independence and, finally, Malaysians have learnt to set aside racial differences and stand up for one another. Yesterday we stopped being Malays and Chinese and emerged as Malaysians. What a great Merdeka Day celebration this 31 August is going to be.
Umno Youth had better be warned. Nearly half the voters voted for the opposition the last general election. It is also said that more than 70% of these people are Malays, as the Chinese had been intimidated into voting for the ruling government.
Maybe Umno Youth is trying to win back Malay support by showing how aggressive they are and that they will take no shit from the Chinese. But this move has backfired badly, just as Dr Mahathir’s move to put Anwar in jail for 15 years has.
Umno Youth has not won back the Malays. They have only forced the Malays to come out in defence of the Chinese. And, to make matters worse, Umno Youth is probably going to now lose the support of the Chinese, which they had in the first place.
The Chinese were scared the last election. They were scared because they thought they were on their own. Now that they know the opposition Malays in BA will not let any harm come to them there is no longer any reason to be scared of Umno.
Umno Youth had better be warned. The Malays in BA are not just paying lip service. They mean what they say. The Malays in BA are determined that race riots are a thing of the past. The Malays in BA will take the punches first before a single Chinese hair can be harmed. The Malays in BA are not ‘talk only’ like Umno Youth but are ‘battle seasoned’ through years of Reformasi. And there are more BA Malays than there are Umno Youth members.
If at all any good has come out of the Reformasi movement it is that Reformasi has successfully set aside race and elevated justice as the rallying call. Umno is all about ‘Malay rights and privileges’. Reformasi is about justice for Anwar and justice for all Malaysians.
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